China's President Hu Jintao is due to make a four-day visit to India starting November 20.There has been some comment on the seeming lack of enthusiasm on the Indian side. Where are Sino-Indian relations headed? I address this question obliquely in my recent column in the Economic Times on the occasion of the 44th anniversary of the Sino-Indian border conflict.
China's growing economic and military power has translated into greater Chinese assertiveness in South Asia. China has followed a policy of 'strategic encirclement' in South Asia: it has forged greater economic and military links with India's neighbours with the objective of ensuring that India is confined to the south Asian space. It has also worked hard for the creation of a south Asian nuclear free zone so that, again, India stays put as a sub-regional power. China justified its relationships with south Asian countries by invoking Panch Sheel. It says it has every right to develop whatever relationship it likes with other sovereign countries.
Fair enough. But how does China justify its clandestine support to Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme all these years? More help on the nuclear front is on the agenda when Hu visits Pakistan before he arrives here.
It is the China factor, more than any other consideration, that explains India's gradual drift towards a closer relationship with the US, a process started by the NDA government and carried forward by the UPA government. That is what explains Manmohan Singh's single-minded pursuit of the Indo-US nuclear in the face of considerable scepticism within the country and at the risk of alientating some of India's friends in the non-aligned and Muslim world.
China's attempts at 'strategic encirclement' will now be countered by India becoming a partner in American attempts at containing China, an exercise in which Japan, the east Asian countreis and some of the central Asian republics will be the other partners.
Read my full article in ET here.
Incidentally, I had promised people that this blog would not be just about banking and the Indian economy. I have been true to my word!
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4 comments:
Dear Prof Ram Mohan,
It is true that the China's growing economic and military power is seen as a constraint and a threat by India, and it is responding by moving closer to the U.S..
But the nucular deal, too, seems to be an American attempt to stunt India into a sub-regional power. The deal appears to give little to India apart from the warmth of proximity.
U.S. power is on the wane owing to major setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, the oncoming recession in its economy, delayed costs of the wars, and debt. The downturn may be temporary, but it looks likely to continue for some time. It would have been better if we had waited a few years, till China and India had grown stronger, and the U.S. weaker. We could have negotiated hard for better terms then, I think.
Thanks, Tumbaru, for your comments.
Your point is well taken: we are doing quite well now, so why not wait for a better moment for striking a deal with the US?
Well,I guess our policy-makers reckon that the nuclear deal will also create a basis for stronger technological and economic cooperation between India and the US- it would accelerate growth in India and it would, incidentally, help us deal with massive Chinese expansion in the south Asian region.
-TTR
Indian approach towards China has always been marked with a degree of caution. Years after Jawaharlal Nehru based his idea of "resurgent Asia" on friendship between the two largest states of Asia, we have at last seen some positive steps taken in this direction. The demand for Sino-Indian cooperation in high-tech cities, re-opening of Nathula (the old trade path btwn teh two countries) and the agreement for placing joint bids for oil projects in the international markets may indicate improving relations.
However India's reluctance to allow China for permanent membership in the SAARC continues.
Paresh, you may have noticed that
Hu Jintao's recent visit hasn't made a big difference even to commercial ties. I'm afraid the overall strategic equation is not still fraught with problems and that imposes its own limits on the scope for Sino-Indian business relationships.
-TTR
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