Sunday, March 16, 2008

Some rosy forecasts for the Indian economy

Interesting.....Investment banks' and commentators’ pessimism about the outlook for the Indian economy in 2008-09 is not shared by others. J P Morgan has revised its GDP forecast for India downwards to 7% for 2008-09.

In contrast, Finance minister P Chidambaram thinks the Indian economy will grow at 8.5% this year. So does the PM’s economic advisory council headed by C Rangarajan. India’s chief economic statistician, Pronob Sen, forecasts growth of 8%. The CMIE expects growth of 9.1%, higher than the 8.9% it projects for 2007-08!

2 comments:

livin said...

Sir,
Today's article "End of the 9% growth dream" by "SWAMINATHAN S ANKLESARIA AIYAR " in Times of India, also realistically projects India's growth rate in 2008 to be 7%.

What is your own view on this? Does this mean the end of India's growth story? What abt FM's claim at the end of this budget speech "The best is yet to come..."

T T Ram Mohan said...

I don't believe yet that the pessimistic outcomes projected for the Indiane economy will come true. Only if there is a deep and prolonged US recession will this happen. I argue in my forthcoming column in ET (march 21) that this is unlikely.