Thursday, December 31, 2009

Forecasts for 2010.

FT's reporters and commentators put out their key forecasts for 2010. Here is an edited version:

Will the UK suffer a double-dip recession?

Will the UK government sell any of their stakes in the banking sector?

Where will oil finish the year?

oil is most likely to end the year within its present trading range of about $70-$80 a barrel.

Should investors put their money into the stock market?
Yes. ...Next year’s stock market gains will be less spectacular than 2009’s.

Will there be a trade war in 2010?
Conflict, yes. Full-blown war, no.

Will the eurozone experience a sovereign default in 2010?
No. ...Since a clean default is impossible, governments will have no choice but to retrench, however painful the consequences.

Who should I bet on in the British general election?
Forget David Cameron’s Conservatives; pity Gordon Brown’s Labour. Put your money instead on Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats. No, I don’t think Mr Clegg is about to sweep into Downing Street as the leader of the first Liberal government for a century. The firm prospect – to my mind as near a certainty as you can get in politics – is that Mr Cameron will be the next prime minister. But those who fancy a wager should look at the odds on the third party.

Will Putin declare his candidacy for Russia’s presidency?
Mr Putin will not formally declare his candidacy until closer to the election date but it seems likely that over the next 12 months he will send ever-stronger signals that he intends to run for the presidency in 2012.

Will the world make progress on nuclear disarmament?

Will this be the year that Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear installations?

Will Afghanistan turn into Obama’s Vietnam?

Will bonuses in Wall Street and the City of London be cut?


P Shukla said...

Dear Sir,
Interesting and certainly the rates of oil as predicted is a good sign.

Wishing you and your family a very happy and healthy new year.

P Shukla

vs said...

Well, there should be something about China - its the most happening place in the world!

China's situation is very similar to Japan's in the 1980s and the US in the 1920s.

In particular, China has similar reserves (5-6% of global GDP) as the countries in both the prior cases. It has similar problems of over capacity and asset inflation.

Lastly, US passed Smoot Hawley/protectionism act and suffered due to a backlash. This time protectionism can come from the deficit countries and will cause more pain (arguable in different timeframes) to the surplus countries.

So, the question is will China suffer just the same as in the prior cases or is it different in some way or can it do something differently?