Thursday, December 15, 2011

India's growth outlook

I present an optimistic view of growth prospects in my ET column, It can't be worse than 2009. This was before the latest figures showing a deceleration in IIP came out.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sir,
The link to your column is not working. Request you to correct the same.

Regards.

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir
I read the above article in ET. I was very much convinced by your agruments based on GFCF. Now you have written that it was before the recent IIP numbers. I am sure you must have seen two artiles in ET on Sunday, one by Mr. Mahesh Vyas and the other by Mr. Swaminathan Aiyer arguing why IIP does not make sense. Sir, what are your views on this.

Ajoy Kumar

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Stable Investor said...

It seems that Indian equities will be going down the drain in the short term. But this time around it is different from 2008. Problem is not only with Global scenario, but also with Indian one. Govt is fighting its own battles with its allies, Anna(s) and corruption. Reforms have come to a standstill and any new initiative is stalled without fail. Inflation has sustained above 10 for quite long now and this has changed people’s ‘expectation’ of inflation. And as we know that expectation of inflation builds inflation, it would be a tough task to tame inflation this time. But theory of Macroeconomics also says that to bring down the ‘expected’ inflation by just 1% point, a lot of growth has to be sacrificed. And that is what is happening in India!
We have raised our interest rates like anything and almost killed our growth. Lets just pray that recovery comes sooner than later or else we can bid goodbyes to our 9% plus growth days.

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