Friday, August 30, 2013

A return to capital controls?

The government has repeatedly ruled out imposition of capital controls, other than the limited ones imposed thus far. But, the buffeting of emerging economies caused by the impending reversal of QE in the US does raise the question: should emerging economies start think of capital controls by way of putting the brakes on both large inflows and outflows? As an article in FT points out, simply having a floating exchange rate problem does not provide insurance against volatile flows:
In an excellent new paper presented at Jackson Hole, however, Professor Hélène Rey of the London Business School argued that a global cycle in credit and capital flows – driven by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy – means that even a floating exchange rate does not give a country control over its own destiny. The trilemma is, in truth, a dilemma. The choice is this: impose capital controls or let the Fed run your economy....... She recommended targeted capital controls, tough bank regulation, and domestic policy to cool off credit booms.
If emerging markets are not to be at the mercy of the Fed and if they are to avoid capital controls, then we need a substantive reform in the international financial system: a move towards an international reserve other than the dollar. This proposal, while talked of for years, has gone nowhere. So, it would be prudent for emerging economies to have counter-cyclical checks on capital flows in order to damp down excesses. If there can be counter-cyclical capital requirements for banks, why not counter-cyclical controls on capital flows?


Anonymous said...

Sir do you see a possibility of financial emergency???

Anonymous said...

can you please explain in lay man's term as to what is happening with Indian economy? Will it ever revive or do we have to live in fear every minute thinking as to when there would be a financial emergency. Seriously as a lay man we are all worried as to which direction the country is leading into.