Friday, October 25, 2013

My latest book is out

My latest book, Before and After the Global Crisis, is out.  It's a collection of my writings in recent years, broken down into five themes: Indian Economy, Indian Banking, World Economy, Management and Governance, Indian Polity. I reproduce the blurb:


The Indian economy has been through something of a roller-coaster ride since 2004. There was a period of boom in 2004. Then came the global crisis, a sharp deceleration in India’s growth rate and a waning of confidence about India’s economic prospects both at home and abroad. 
This collection of articles, written for The Economic Times and the Economic and Political Weekly, provides an intelligent – and often off-beat- analysis of events in the Indian economy as well as the world economy over the period 2004-2012.     
As the financial sector has been at the heart of the crisis, the Indian banking sector as well as international banking come in for close scrutiny.  The book also takes in its stride developments in the Indian polity, and a range of issues relating to management and governance.  
Written in the readable and hard-hitting style for which the author is well-known, the book is at once a chronicle and a critique of a turbulent period for the Indian economy as well as the global economy.
As I thumbed the pages after receiving my copy, I asked myself whether the writings would stand the test of time. That's obviously for the reader to judge. But I have no difficulty in confessing that I seem to have been somewhat over-optimistic about India's growth prospects. I did not foresee the sort of sharp deceleration in growth we have had in the past three years. Some of it is, of course, the result of non-economic factors that could not have been foreseen: the Supreme Court ban on mining, the delays in environmental and other clearances that have held up projects, including the expansion of coal supply, and, not least, the CAG reports and the anti-corruption crusade which have paralysed both parliament and the bureaucracy.

A deceleration from 9% during the boom years to 6.5-7% would have been understandable. But not the drop to 5%. Still less could one have thought that the drop in the growth rate would have stretch out for so long. It doesn't seem likely that growth will move up to 7% before 2015-16, and, that too, is contingent on global factors. Before we get there, we will need to weather the storm that will be unleashed by the tapering of QE in the US. Looking back on the growth optimism, which I shared, one is reminded that economists need more than a touch of humility in pronouncing on the future.




7 comments:

Sujatha said...

TTR ,
Congrats ! on the launch of your new book.
I had always felt that the feel good factor you were trying to project was often misplaced. It was perhaps just to buoy the spirits of common man or sound different from the rest who were predicting a downward trend. I had made such a comment to one of your posts.
As a non-expert I could see signs of economy crumbling around me. I agree certain factors were beyond our imagination but the signs were obvious.
It was wishful thinking..... but unrealistic.

T T Ram Mohan said...

Thanks, Sujatha, for your note and your comments. My optimism was genuine, it wasn't intended to create a feel-good factor. Also, I don't believe that what is going on at the moment alters the longer-term outlook significantly.

-TTR

Anonymous said...

Are you trying to say there is gloom beyond the doom!!!

T T Ram Mohan said...

Anonymous, No, I'm not saying that. I remain optimistic about the medium-term outlook. Just saying that I had not expected such a severe downturn.

-TTR

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

I have been reading your articles in ET for last six years or more and it has given me a different perspective from others. It is a great pleasure to know that now we can read your research in this book. However i have a concern that price of book is a bit higher you should have given a thought about poor students also who want to read this but because of price they wont be able to do so.

T T Ram Mohan said...

Anonymous, Thanks for your kind sentiments. Quite appreciate your concern but am afraid I have no role in the pricing of the book- it's done by the publishers.Perhaps you can get your college library to procure a copy?

-TTR

Anonymous said...

Many congrats on launch of new book. Predictions and prophecy can go wrong - that's reason they are called "predictions"

But your articles/blogs has always provided a direction in my thought process. Most important, the picture of future you create is always backed by rationale argument and many times, hard core facts.

Good to see compilation. Will try to buy or borrow it (if price is high). But Kudos.

Just wanted to know your perspective on Modi's governance & leadership ability vis-à-vis current UPA II. I suppose many others have also asked for similar opinion in other posts. Few words of wisdom sir...