We are
seeing all commentaries about the decisive victory score by the Congress in the
Karnataka Assembly polls. We need to be careful in interpreting the results. Going
by the seats secured by parties in elections, we know, can be deceptive. Small
swings in votes can result in disproportionate changes in seats won.
A better
gauge of a party’s popularity is vote share. The BJP vote share in Karnataka
remains what it was in 2018- 37 per cent-, going by this article. It appears that the BJP lost marginally in some areas, gained
massively in Bengaluru and held on to its vote share in the coastal regions.
The marginal losses in some places sufficed to change the outcome in terms of
seats. What brought about the small change in votes in areas where the BJP lost
needs to be analysed.
It does seem
that the theories for the outcome that are being put forward- polarisation gone
wrong, developmental story winning, leftist orientation of Congress going down
well, etc- are premature. We need a rigorous analysis of the outcomes in
various regions to tell a convincing narrative.
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