India's ambitious plans for its navy

I have said this before: very often, you have to look to western media for serious news about India.

FT has a fascinating story on how India's plans to beef up the navy to cope with China's expansion in the Indian ocean.

The statistics are impressive. About  66 per cent of the world's oil supply of 50 per cent of container traffic passes. An estimated 95 per cent of India's own trade happens via the Indian Ocean. For China, 95 per cent of its $6 trillion trade is sea borne and most of its passes through the Indian Ocean.

India wants a powerful navy that will safeguard its maritime interests and act as a powerful level in the event of tensions with China.

Thus far, India has fallen behind on plans for the navy:

Few things capture India’s sluggish modernisation of its navy better than its vacillating plan to build up its submarine fleet. In 1999 New Delhi laid out a blueprint for building 24 new submarines over 30 years, to add to its existing fleet.  But 25 years later, only six have been built, meaning India has less than half the planned number of new conventional submarines. It has two nuclear ballistic submarines, though two more are under construction, and last year it decided to build two nuclear attack submarines, and will lease one from Russia. Of the 17 conventional submarines, 11 are over 25 years old.   

It is now making up for lost time:

India has 55 ships under construction at an approximate cost of Rs1tn ($11bn). The navy has got the government’s nod to build another 64 and hopes to get a third aircraft carrier — the second to be built within the country — but has not got a green light from the government yet. 

There is now way India can match China's naval capability: China boasts of some 250 ships at the moment and is still building frantically.

India's naval strategy, the article indicates, hinges on a few key elements.

First, China can deploy only 35 per cent of its naval assets in the Indian Ocean, so India needs to have only 1 ship for every three that China has. Secondly, India will use airbases in Mauritius and Seychelles as a counterweight to China. Thirdly, India is fortifying its position in the Nicobar islands which is close to the Malacca Straits through which 80 per cent of China's sea traffic passes.

Experts are clear about one thing. The Indian navy will strictly defend Indian interest, it will not be drawn into the conflicts of others, such as a confrontation between China and the West over Taiwan.