Drumbeat on Iran grows louder

Western experts warn that Iran could be in a position to develop nuclear weapons way ahead of the 2010-2015 period estimated earlier. Some believe that Iran may be just 12-24 months way, according to a report in the FT.

“It looks like they could be there in a year,” said Richard Garwin, one of the designers of the US’s first H-bomb, referring to the possibility that Iran could build up a sufficient stockpile of enriched uranium in the next 12 months. That would mean it could produce enough weapons-grade material for a bomb at a few further months’ notice.

Prof Garwin said the IAEA report showed that Iran was stepping up uranium enrichment. The report says that between February and November this year Iran fed 1,240kg of uranium feedstock into its enrichment facility in Natanz, south of Tehran, up from 690kg between February and August.

This means that in the last three months Iran has pushed almost as much uranium through the system – 550kg – as it did in the preceding seven months. It also indicates that Natanz has not only expanded in size but may also now be operating more smoothly.

Prof Garwin said the figures signified that Iran would now have more than 100kg of fuel-grade uranium, which could be fed back into the system to produce weapons-grade material in a matter of months.

I don't know what to make of these reports- remember also those warnings about WMD in Iraq? I do know one thing: the appearance of such reports makes a US attack on Iran more likely. I had thought that such an attack would happen in 2007. I think the probability is even higher in 2008. That is part of the reason oil prices inched up to the $100 mark recently. They receded after a top US general warned against the risks of such an attack.

Defence experts have been saying that the US would lauch a comprehensive air attack on Iran's nuclear and physical infrastructure with as many as 1500 targets. Very few ground troops would be involved. The idea would be to bomb Iran back into the stone age.