Friday, February 01, 2008

Indian growth rate on a high

Travel and other commitments have kept me away from my blog for a week.

I return to highlight the growth peak of 9.6% the Indian economy touched n 2006-07- this is said to be the highest growth rate in 18 years.

My immediate responses:
  • The achievement is all the more remarkable because it comes on top of three years of high growth prior to 2007-08.
  • For four years now, the actual growth rate has exceeded most forecasts. For 2007-08, the forecast was in the range of 8.5-9% and the earlier estimate 9.2%. For 2007-08, the RBI forecasts 8.5% and the Economic Advisory Council 9%. These two forecasts rested on the previous estimate for 2006-07. Now that we have a higher base for 2006-07, will the forecast growth for 2007-08 materialise? Going by recent experience, yes it will!
  • More interesting is the outlook for 2008-09. The EAC, the RBI, the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission and the Finance minister are all sanguine about growth prospects despite the enveloping gloom arising from financial market turbulence. In government, it is fair to say, the consensus forecast remains close to 8.5% for 2008-09. More than the growth rates of the earlier years, it is an 8.5% growth rate in 2008-09- if it materialises, as I think likely- that will define in emphatic terms the turnaround in the Indian economy. The high growth rates upto now have been ascribed to the global bloom. To grow at the same rate in the midst of global turbulence will be some achievement.
  • Higher than expected growth in 2006-07 changes one key fiscal number- the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP. It means that the fiscal deficit so defined was lower than shown earlier in 2006-07 and the forecast for 2007-08 will be surpassed. My guess is that despite the impact of the Sixth Pay Commission, the fiscal deficit target of 3% of GDP by 2008-09 will be achieved, although the off-budget subsidies on food, oil and fertilisers do understate the fiscal deficit.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear All Mumbai
Feb 3, 2008

We are glad to inform you all that www.personalfinancewindow.com, a news portal on - mutual funds, insurance, primary market and bank schemes - is getting popular day by day.

The content on our website is being used by the websites like www.rediff.com. A link of the latest article has been attached here:


http://www.rediff.com/getahead/2008/jan/18ramesh.htm


Our site contains following sections:

News: Personal finance news on Mutual Funds, Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), Secondary Market, Insurance and Bank Schemes. News related to these areas is being hosted on the daily basis.

Regulation: The news related to the regulatory announcements from Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Union Finance Ministry, Insurance Regulatory Development Authority (IRDA) and other similar agencies. The investors are being informed about the regulatory decisions whenever they are taken up by the concerned agencies.

Market Monitor: This page is covering the equity markets movement at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE). An analysis is being made on how the market behaved over a period of time and the factors that could influence its future direction.

Insight: An analysis on any current issue developed in the financial market or corporate world having its impact on the personal finance. The analysis would be presented to the web-visitor on the basis of `as and when it happens'.

Forum: This web page contains the `Letters to the editor'. The web visitors (investors) grievances are being hosted.

Cartoon: A special attraction of the website is the Cartoon, `Bhadralok' This appears every Monday at the home page of this website, having an enlarged version in the inside page. The main character of the cartoon, `Bhadralok' (A gentleman) is a portrayal of a common investor who finds it difficult to take a proper investment-decision in the complex Financial Market.

In this backdrop, we have decided to provide free content to good blogs like yours for one year. You can use the content by providing us link with logo (please see the above mentioned URL, how rediff.com has given) and can put our hyperlink – www.personalfinancewindow.com on your blog.


You can send us your comments or suggestions at the following E-mail IDs:

1. media@personalfinancewindow.com
2. vinay_ranjan@rediffmail.com


With warm regards,

Vinay Ranjan
Managing Editor
personalfinancewindow.com
Mumbai
E-mail: editor@personalfinancewindow.com
Vinay_ranjan@rediffmail.com

Unknown said...

6th Pay Commission

By the 6th pay commission a discrimination has been created amongst the
pensioners. 6th pay commission's differential benefits to pensioners from
January 1st 2006 is in contravention of laws laid down by honorable
Supreme Court....

READ MORE >> www.right2info.com

Unknown said...

6th Pay Commission

By the 6th pay commission a discrimination has been created amongst the
pensioners. 6th pay commission's differential benefits to pensioners from
January 1st 2006 is in contravention of laws laid down by honorable
Supreme Court....

READ MORE >> www.right2info.com

Anonymous said...

Hello!!! ttrammohan.blogspot.com is one of the most excellent resourceful websites of its kind. I enjoy reading it every day. All the best.