Gaza conflict: where do we stand now?

Israel has announced that it is pulling out its troops from Khan Younis, the scene of bitter battles between the IDF and Hamas for several weeks. Some reports suggest that Israel has withdrawn all but one of its brigades from Gaza. Israel claims its job is substantially done. The claim has little credibility. Hamas is still standing and the remaining hostages are yet to be returned. So neither of the two objectives of the war set by the government of PM Netanyahu have been met. 

Two well-known blogs, A Son of the American Revolution, and Moon of Alabama, both known for their incisive military analysis, present interesting views here and here. .

Here is Larry Johnson of the first blog:

Israel is losing because it has failed, after six months of lopsided combat, to defeat Hamas and free the hostages. Israel has proved itself to be quite skilled in killing unarmed women, children and elderly. The Izzies sure know how to bomb hospitals, medical clinics, schools, churches, mosques, universities and UN refugee centers. Instead of fortifying the myth of Israel as David fighting the colossus Muslim Goliath, Israel’s military campaign has been an unmitigated public relations disaster. Early claims of beheaded children and mass rapes turned out to be fabrications by a determined Israeli psyops campaign. Public opinion around the world views Israel as a murderous thug. There was a time that Israel could count on having a majority of Western nations in its corner. That time is over.

And here goes Moon of Alabama:

International criticism of Israel has risen to unprecedented levels. Several UN resolutions have condemned it for its war crimes in Gaza. The International Court of Justice has ruled against it.

Only the support from the United States had allowed Israel to continue. But two recent incidents have jeopardized it.

The first was Israel's assassination of seven people who had been working for World Central Kitchen, a U.S. based charity with good connections to Congress. Forty members of Congress, including Nancy Pelosi, have since spoken out against further unconditional support for Israel. The U.S. government under Joe Biden had to acknowledge that. It finally threatened to end its support for the Israeli government.

Following U.S. threats Israel immediately increased the provision of food to the starving population in Gaza:

The Defense Ministry body that coordinates Israeli activity in Palestinian territories said that 322 aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip on Sunday, the highest one-day total since the beginning of the war.

The second game changing incident was the Israeli attack on an Iranian embassy building in Damascus. A hit on any embassy is a serious crime that concerns all governments in this world. Iran would be fully within its rights to retaliated for such a strike.

The U.S. was extremely concerned over this as any Iranian response might well hit the many U.S. installation in the Middle East and could escalate into a wider war with severe consequences for all sides.

This had to be averted. Iranian media report now that a deal has been made in negotiations between Iran and the U.S. Iran will refrain from a direct attack on Israel if the U.S. guarantees a ceasefire in Gaza.

But does Israel being on the defensive mean that peace will return to Gaza? It still seems unlikely. PM Netanyahu has every interest in continuing the war- the moment the war ends, his government will fall and he will have to face long-standing corruption charges. Hamas' chief in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, will feel less of a compulsion to pursue peace talks now that Israeli military presence is considerably reduced. He has every incentive to play for higher stakes: the end of Israeli occupation of Gaza and the hand over of the strip back to Hamas.

The big imponderable is the Iranian response to the assassination of one of its generals in Syria, widely ascribed to Israel. Will a response provide the pretext for Israel to launch an assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon?