Why is Mr Modi so popular with the electorate?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi took his party to a huge win in 2014 and repeated it in 2019. Going by most forecasts, he is set for a third consecutive win. Many have been puzzling over the amazing electoral success Mr Modi has had. Fund manager Ruchir Sharma provides his own explanation. He says Mr Modi has provided growth with relatively low inflation. For that reason, the electorate is willing to overlook things such as his alleged going after opposition parties on charges of corruption or the supposed curbing of civil liberties. The electorate has done a deal of the sort East Asian economies had done with their rulers earlier:

I think what we are seeing is a kind of tacit deal, in which swing voters accept a democratic recession under Modi, so long as he delivers economic progress. While the hardcore supporters of his Bharatiya Janata party were always going to stand by their leader and the party’s Hindutva ideology, Modi has significantly expanded its traditional base by offering a deal that appeals to an increasing number of young and new voters. This is reminiscent of east Asia after the second world war, when countries such as South Korea and Taiwan put together long runs of rapid growth with low inflation under autocratic leaders, who gave way to genuinely free elections only after their nations reached a middle-income level. Under Modi, India has witnessed relatively robust economic growth, with low and stable inflation — much like the early east Asian model. It also has enjoyed a booming stock market, the rollout of gleaming infrastructure projects and new digital platforms that facilitate the delivery of welfare benefits.

This sound more than a little glib. The UPA government produced simple average growth of 6.6 per cent in its second term on top of 7 per cent growth in its first term. These are both very healthy numbers, yet that could not save the government from defeat in 2014. The NDA government produced growth of 7.38 per cent in its first term, not vastly superior to what the UPA government produced in its second term. In its second term, however, it has produced growth of  4.5 per cent; evidently, that will suffice to get it elected.

It's not at all clear that the Modi government has won on the strength of economic growth alone. There are several other elements that must be factored in. The government has sought to redefine nationalism in very different terms through its projection of Hindutva; that appears to have resonated with large numbers of people, including young voters. It has been successful in reaching welfare benefits- food, cooking gas, health insurance etc- to large numbers of people. There is Mr Modi's personal charisma- he comes across as somebody who's incredibly hard-working and committed to the objective of making India a developed country by 2047.

Lastly, the electorate probably does not see the opposition as shining angels of the protection of civil liberties or tolerance of the opposition. The Indian state has never quite got out of the framework created by the British Raj to perpetuate its rule. No political party can really claim moral superiority on how the state treats its citizens. It is an important area crying out for future reform.