Friday, June 28, 2024

A very important statement from the RBI Governor

The RBI Governor, Mr Shaktikanta Das, recently made a statement that hasn't got the attention it deserved. 

The Governor is quoted as saying:

India is at the threshold of a major structural shift in its growth trajectory, moving towards 8 per cent GDP growth in a sustained manner. We are moving towards an annual growth rate of 8 per cent.

This is by far the most optimistic official statement on the Indian economy in a long time. It is not clear what time frame the Governor has in mind for the growth rate of 8 per cent, whether it is a mediium-term forecast or a long-term forecast- the issue of the word "sustained" does suggest a fairly long time horizon.

The Chief Economic Advisor in the finance ministry has been talking of a sustained growth rate of 6.5 per cent. Many analysts have been talking of the potential for the Indian economy to grow at 8 per cent- provided various "big bang" reforms are carried out. What the RBI Governor is saying- if he has been quoted correctly in the media- is that, on present steam, the Indian economy is moving towards an 8 per cent trajectory. 

Any thoughts on this, anybody?




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