RBI's growth optimism

Here is a telling quote from the RBI's Monthly Review of the economy which is in line with the upbeat assessment given by the RBI Governor recently. (Please see my previous post):V

There is increasing evidence that in the post-pandemic years, a trend upshift is taking shape, which is shifting India’s growth trajectory from the 2003-19 average of 7 per cent to the 2021-24 average of 8 per cent or even more, powered by domestic drivers.

The growth forecasts for the global economy are downbeat: global economic growth in the next five years will be below the average of the last two decades. Nevertheless, the RBI seems to suggest India can grow at 8 per cent plus on the strength of "domestic drivers". Does the RBI think the Indian economy can grow at 8 per cent even under conditions of weak global growth? Will that be on account of services exports? 

This does seem to be an altogether new appraisal of India's economic prospects. Economists have been telling us for long that an 8 per cent growth rate is out of the question without robust export growth, say, 15 per cent per annum.

There's one thing, though, that puzzles me. The Monthly Review projects growth of 7.6 per cent in 2024-25 but only 6.4 per cent in 2025-26. Will India move towards an 8 per cent trajectory thereafter or have we already move on to such a trajectory? The RBI may clarify.