Thursday, October 18, 2007

Craze for emerging markets

Investors have rediscovered emerging markets after being burnt in the east Asian crisis. But net inflows into emerging markets as a whole are still lower than their historical highs. That is because the rise in gross inflows has been matched by outflows from emerging markets into other economies.

That was the position until last year. Things may have changed dramatically after the sub-prime crisis. Money is flooding the emerging markets on an unbelievable scale. FT reports:

Brad Durham of EPFR Global, which tracks fund flows, says that of the $29bn (£14bn, €20bn) in net inflows to emerging markets so far this year, 82 per cent has arrived over the past seven weeks, “which is astounding”.

By contrast, during the same period, US equity funds tracked by the group saw outflows of $6.3bn, European equity funds (excluding east European funds) surrendered $6.9bn and Japanese equity funds gave up $3.9bn.

There you have it. Funds are being switched out of industrial economies and into emerging markets. As a result, the price-earnings ratio in emerging markets is at a small premium to that in industrial economies. Macroeconomic conditions in emerging markets are today seen as sounder than before- growth is strong, 50% of global growth was contributed last year by China, India and Russia and foreign exchange reserves of emerging economies exceed inflows into emerging markets, making these economies net creditors for a change.

India is particularly favoured among emerging markets and that must explain the dizzying rise in the Sensex in recent weeks.

1 comment:

volcurve said...

You might find some graphs regarding India here...