The IMF sees the world economy emerging from its prolonged post-crisis slump in 2017 and 2018. It appears that expansionary monetary policy and fiscal policy (until it was reversed a couple of years ago) have borne fruit. Or it could just be that the world has been through the eight years or so takes to emerge from a serious financial crisis (Rogoff and Reinhart).
There are, however, too many imponderables in the picture- doubts about the fiscal expansion promised by Trump (given the difficulties he's had in dealing with Congress), Brexit and its likely fallout, China's debt overhang, rising protectionism and anti-globalisation sentiment and major geo-political risks, including all-out war in the Korean peninsula. So I wouldn't want to celebrate right away.
More in my article in the Hindu, The world is still flat.
There are, however, too many imponderables in the picture- doubts about the fiscal expansion promised by Trump (given the difficulties he's had in dealing with Congress), Brexit and its likely fallout, China's debt overhang, rising protectionism and anti-globalisation sentiment and major geo-political risks, including all-out war in the Korean peninsula. So I wouldn't want to celebrate right away.
More in my article in the Hindu, The world is still flat.
1 comment:
Sir please let us know about your thoughts on - $1.3 trillion housing boom set to be India's next growth driver.
Evicting slums is not a joke. They need to be given financial independence and better opportunities and NOT cheap houses. Not sure if housing and job market would rise but surely there would be a social uprising in India.
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/58587790.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppsthttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/1-3-trillion-housing-boom-set-to-be-indias-next-growth-driver/articleshow/58587790.cms
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