Ukraine: what exactly is going on?

Western governments and the Western media have been screaming for over a week that a Russian attack on Ukraine is imminent. Russia denies any plans to invade Ukraine. The President of Ukraine has asked Western governments to tone down hysteria over a Russian invasion: he doesn't think one is imminent. 

So, what exactly is going on?

Well, it is fair to say that Russia has no interest in absorbing Ukraine. It was interested in maintaining its access to the Black Sea. That objective was achieved when the Crimea was absorbed into Russia. Putin insists that Russia's interest in Ukraine is limited to ensuring it does not become a base for NATO missiles by becoming part of NATO.

Ukraine and some Western governments have indicated that there is little chance of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO. That requires the unanimous approval of all NATO countries. There is no way that such unanimity will be achieved in the foreseeable future. No European country, other than the UK, would like to incur the wrath of Russia in the cause of making Ukraine  a member of NATO- it's just not worth the trouble. What Ukraine and the West are reluctant to do is to concede Putin's demand for iron-clad guarantees that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. 

If Ukraine becoming a member of NATO is a non-issue for now, why has Russia massed troops on the border with Ukraine? A plausible reason could be that it fears Ukraine will allow itself to be used by the West to launch a major assault on Donbas whose Russian population has been facing attacks from Ukraine for quite some time. Russia cannot be passive spectator to such an assault. It is, therefore, keeping its troops in readiness.

Why would the West want Ukraine to provoke Russia? Well, the speculation is that the US wants an excuse to get the West to impose sanctions that would include a ban on the Nord Stream 2 project that involves the supply of Russian gas to Germany. The US does not want Europe to be depend on Russia for its energy. Germany has been reluctant to buy the US line because it can use Russian gas supplies. Creating a ruckus over any Russian action against Ukraine would provide the basis for sanctions that cover Nord Stream 2. 

Another American objective could be tying down Russia in its immediate vicinity so that it does not attempt far away adventures such as the one in Syria. 

Putin has made it clear that he will not allow the countries in its periphery to be used a base for missiles that threaten Russia. He has declared that he has no interest in re-creating the erstwhile Soviet Union. If the West cannot accept this position, the world is in for serious trouble.