Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Early assessments of Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak has become PM after Liz Truss's short-lived tenure. It was a period in which the government's ill-conceived fiscal proposals sent the financial markets into turmoil. You could say that after that disaster, anybody would be an improvement.

That's ok, but can can we expect anything more? A columnist in FT, Janan Ganesh, thinks that Sunak's competence is over-rated:

He has crammed a lot of misjudgments into a short career. Among the prime ministers since the EU referendum of 2016, two voted Remain (Theresa May, Liz Truss) and one (Boris Johnson) embraced Leave with the tardiness of an opportunist. Britain is now led for the first time by someone who believed with real fervour that Brexit was a good idea. The lost trade, the forfeited fiscal receipts: he failed to anticipate these costs, or overrated the ease of making them up elsewhere. He does not even have the excuse of being a nostalgic. There was and is a coherent traditionalist case for Brexit. There was never a liberal or free-market one. How a man of modernist, pro-growth sensibilities came to believe otherwise is not just an academic mystery. It forces the question of what other eccentric choices he might make as head of government.

Ganesh still thinks that Sunak is a good choice because of his rectitude. I thought the writer was talking about his integrity in financial matters. No, it's not that. 

Ganesh thinks that Sunak took a principled position in quitting Johnson's cabinet after its murkiness crossed limits. Well, I am not sure. There are many who saw it as opportunism, a case of jumping off  a sinking ship. Johnson supporters saw it as back-stabbing on Sunak's part. It's rather naive to think that there is much room for principle at that level of politics- if you were constrained by principle, you would not survive. Look at what happened to Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour party.

A more perceptive article in Russia Today sees the Conservative party as riven by divisions between the old and new elites. The old elites believed were somewhat wary of globalism, identity politics, transgender rights and the rest. They were more inclined towards traditional values such as nationalism, family, Christian work ethic, etc. These divisions explain the conflict between the pro- Brexit brigade (to which Sunak belongs) and the anti-Brexit brigade. The writer thinks these divisions doom the Conservative party. Sunak does not have the skills to achieve a reconciliation:

.....if the party is to survive, even in the short term, it needs a head with real stature and genuine political skills. Rishi Sunak, who has just become the new leader, does not even come close to fitting this bill.  

The writer thinks Sunak will not last till Christmas, which implies he will give close competition to Truss! Well, we'll wait and see.


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