India's foreign policy establishment is in shock. In a matter of months, Indo-US ties have soured and Pak- US ties have soared. It is not clear how this has happened.
First, the deterioration in Indo-US ties.
For Mr Trump, the aggravations from India's side are many. India is not willing to make certain concessions on trade, such as allowing entry of American agricultural and dairy products, so a trade deal has proved elusive over several months. India has refused to accept Mr Trump's line that it was he who mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after the skirmish last May. Mr Trump, we are told, is deeply miffed on that account.
Then there is the business of oil purchases from Russia. Mr Trump and his colleagues say India along with China is financing the Russian war machine. But the point is that the sanctions on Russian oil apply only to the US and the EU. Other nations are not barred from buying Russian oil, they are subject to the price cap of $60. Very recently, a new formula has been applied which causes the cap to fall to around $47. The US was okay with India's purchase of oil from Russia because it kept global oil prices from shooting up. Mr Trump's turnaround is extraordinary, to say the least.
The Economist notes:
This (a tariff of 50 per cent on Indian exports to the US) marks a striking change from Mr Trump’s first term, when the American president and Indian prime minister filled stadiums from Texas to Gujarat in celebration of a blossoming bond between the two countries. India clinched deals for defence equipment and tech usually reserved for NATO allies and some exemptions from sanctions on its dealings with Russia. A mutual disquiet about China’s rise lent the relationship urgency. As a result, India welcomed Mr Trump’s comeback. According to a poll in 2024 by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, 84% of Indians believed Mr Trump was good news for their own country—the highest among all 24 countries polled.
But despite Mr Modi’s outwardly friendly reception at the White House in February, one journalist briefed on the visit describes Indian diplomats as “stunned” by the “lack of respect” America’s president showed India’s prime minister behind closed doors.
Now for the improvement in Pak-US ties. FT has a detailed story on how it turned its relationship with the US around:
The newfound US admiration for Pakistan is partly the fruit of a charm offensive concocted by Pakistan’s senior generals, leveraging counterterrorism co-operation, outreach to business people close to Trump and deals covering energy, critical minerals and cryptocurrencies — all accompanied by a cascade of flattery for the White House.
....Pakistan’s turnaround was helped early on by what the US saw as an important arrest. In March Asim Malik, the head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency, delivered a high-value Isis-K operative who the US said was behind a 2021 bombing in Kabul that killed more than 180 people, including 13 US soldiers. His capture earned Pakistan Trump’s praise in his March State of the Union address, when the US president also lambasted India over high tariffs.
......World Liberty Financial, a Trump-backed cryptocurrency venture, signed a letter of intent with Pakistan’s crypto council in April, when its co-founders visited Pakistan. Zach Witkoff, the son of US special envoy Steve Witkoff, said during the trip that Pakistan had “trillions of dollars” of mineral wealth ripe for tokenisation.
....Islamabad also gave credit to Trump for brokering the truce with New Delhi — to the point of nominating the US president for the Nobel Peace Prize. Trading his khakis for a suit and tie this weekend, Munir again heaped praise on the US president when speaking to a group of Pakistani-Americans in Tampa.
Pakistan's stars are clearly on the ascendant. At least in the immediate future, India has its task cut out in dealing with Mr Trump and the US.
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