How open is the Strait of Hormuz?

We know one thing for sure about the MoU that the US and Iran have signed.

The US wants the Strait of Hormuz opened as quickly and fully as possible. If that happens, oil prices keep falling for a while and governments get a chance to replenish their strategic reserves. To keep oil flowing at the maximum rate in the 60 day negotiation period is what the US wants. 

At the end of 60 days, there is room for an extension. The US administration will keep talking so that oil prices are under control in the run up to the mid-term elections to the US Congress in November. 

Iran would like oil to flow as slowly as possible. The greater the pain to the global economy, the greater is Iran's leverage. Moreover, within the 60 day period Iran cannot charge tolls or fees. After 60 days, it feels it has the right to charge fees towards services rendered to the ships.

So the incentives for both sides are clear enough.

What is not clear is how far the Strait has opened. The priority is to get the estimated 1000 ships stranded during the conflict out at the earliest. The sailors on these ships have had a terrible time in the past 100 days. The middle portion of the Strait needs to be demined and that will take time. Ships can pass through routes close to Oman or those close to Iran. 

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has created a route close to Oman through which, they say, tankers stranded during the conflict are passing at a furious pace. Iran objects, saying all ships must pass only through its own designated routes.

Just how much is going through?

In normal times, 135 ships transit the Strait each day. Military analyst Larry Johnson provides data to show that on June 23, only 7-13 ships transited the Strait. On June 24, according to FT, an estimated 41 ships transited, 15 via the Iran route and 26 via the Oman route. That is a huge jump. 

And that jump is precisely what provoked the Iran missile attack yesterday on a ship using the Oman route. The IMO has since suspended its evacuation plan. So the Strait appears to be closed again for practical purposes. 

In return for opening the Hormuz, Iran gets some of its assets released and it gets a waiver of oil sanctions for 60 days. But it loses it leverage over the global economy and the US economy.  

The ceasefire period thus seems to be working to the advantage of the US. The Oman route is spoiling the show for Iran. Iran cannot allow a situation in which it does not control the flow of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Hence the Iranian attack on a tanker in the Oman area.  

Will the US construe that as a violation of the MoU? And how will it react if it does?

 

Moment of reckoning in oil markets is at hand

I wrote in an earlier post that the oil markets are under-pricing the risks inherent in the Iran conflict and that a spike in oil prices is not far off.

Even as President Trump weighs the option of another strike on Iran, it appears that the moment of reckoning in oil markets is not far off. Another two or three weeks of the stalemate could push oil prices to over $120 per barrel. And another strike by the US? Well, the bets are truly off.

If that sounds pessimistic, here are two pieces, one by Martin Wolf on the prospects for the oil markets and another by Amos Hochstein on how oil prices can soon impact the US. 

Martin Wolf gives three reasons why we should be worrying:

• The problem is not just the closure of the Strait of Hormuz but the destruction of physical infrastructure in the Gulf countries
• The shortages are not just of crude oil but refined products. The US is a net exporter but it has requirements of imported crude of specific varieties.
• So far the price impact has been muted by the drawdown of stock. But stocks are finite. Moreover, there is not much spare production capacity.

Hochstein presents an interesting fact. Gasoline price has shot up to $4.5 per gallon. The highest level reached so far in the US is $5.02 per barrel which happened in June 2022. Gas prices are poised to rise because, given that jet fuel prices have risen even further, production capacity is being used for jet fuel and not for gasoline! The implications are clear enough:

Energy prices feed into the core consumer price index with a lag of several weeks. The pump pain of May will translate into inflation figures in July and August. The 30-year Treasury yield has risen to the highest level since the financial crisis and the 10-year Treasury yield is already rising. Mortgage costs, corporate borrowing rates and the cost of financing national debt all move with it.

The oil markets are still banking on a swift resolution of the conflict. If that doesn't happen, 'the largest energy shock in history' will wreak havoc on the world economy. 

US has lost the war in Iran- Robert Kagan

Robert Kagan, US columnist and neoconservative, joins the chorus of voices that say that the US has lost the war in Iran.

The US cannot bring about the collapse of the Iran regime without extremely high costs. Kagan spells out these costs and argues that simply walking away seems the best option for Trump:

Unless the U.S. is prepared to engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold; unless it is prepared to risk the loss of warships convoying tankers through a contested strait; unless it is prepared to accept the devastating long-term damage to the region’s productive capacities likely to result from Iranian retaliation—walking away now could seem like the least bad option.

And walking away from the present situation is certainly defeat:

There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished

Far from being toppled or even weakened, the government in Iran is poised to emerge stronger and Iran will be a greater force in the world than in the past:

The power to close or control the flow of ships through the strait is greater and more immediate than the theoretical power of Iran’s nuclear program. This leverage will allow the leaders in Tehran to force nations to lift sanctions and normalize relations or face penalties. Israel will find itself more isolated than ever, as Iran grows richer, rearms, and preserves its options to go nuclear in the future. 

The question is how soon will President Trump bow to the reality and walk away. The longer the wait, the greater is the cost to the world economy.

IRGC navy chief was an expert in aysmmetrical warfare

 The IRGC naval chief, Ali Reza Tangsiri, who was reportedly killed in an Israeli strike was an expert in asymmetrical naval warfare.

The Guardian pays an unusual obit :

According to the US Treasury, which sanctioned him in 2019 and in 2023, Tangsiri oversaw the IRGC Navy’s testing of cruise missiles and sat on the board of a company that developed armed drones. Both weapons could now be used to maintain the current blockade of the strait.

A third weapon strongly supported by Tangsiri was fast boats – light, manoeuvrable craft that can threaten civilian shipping but also, he hoped, evade the defence systems of modern warships.

Last week, Tangsiri dared the US to launch a ground assault on Kharg Island, Iran’s principal hub for oil exports, pointing out the effect such a move would have on oil prices. On Monday, said in a media post that Iran had “prepared the graves of child-killing aggressors”.

Iran seems to have nurtured a crop of extremely talented military leaders. The talent pool is so wide that the killing of those at the helm is little cause for concern- they seem to get replaced by younger, even more highly motivated leaders. 

That should be a real worry for the US and Israel.