My latest book is out

My latest book, Before and After the Global Crisis, is out.  It's a collection of my writings in recent years, broken down into five themes: Indian Economy, Indian Banking, World Economy, Management and Governance, Indian Polity. I reproduce the blurb:

The Indian economy has been through something of a roller-coaster ride since 2004. There was a period of boom in 2004. Then came the global crisis, a sharp deceleration in India’s growth rate and a waning of confidence about India’s economic prospects both at home and abroad. 

This collection of articles, written for The Economic Times and the Economic and Political Weekly, provides an intelligent – and often off-beat- analysis of events in the Indian economy as well as the world economy over the period 2004-2012.     

As the financial sector has been at the heart of the crisis, the Indian banking sector as well as international banking come in for close scrutiny.  The book also takes in its stride developments in the Indian polity, and a range of issues relating to management and governance.  

Written in the readable and hard-hitting style for which the author is well-known, the book is at once a chronicle and a critique of a turbulent period for the Indian economy as well as the global economy.

As I thumbed the pages after receiving my copy, I asked myself whether the writings would stand the test of time. That's obviously for the reader to judge. But I have no difficulty in confessing that I seem to have been somewhat over-optimistic about India's growth prospects. I did not foresee the sort of sharp deceleration in growth we have had in the past three years. Some of it is, of course, the result of non-economic factors that could not have been foreseen: the Supreme Court ban on mining, the delays in environmental and other clearances that have held up projects, including the expansion of coal supply, and, not least, the CAG reports and the anti-corruption crusade which have paralysed both parliament and the bureaucracy.

A deceleration from 9% during the boom years to 6.5-7% would have been understandable. But not the drop to 5%. Still less could one have thought that the drop in the growth rate would have stretch out for so long. It doesn't seem likely that growth will move up to 7% before 2015-16, and, that too, is contingent on global factors. Before we get there, we will need to weather the storm that will be unleashed by the tapering of QE in the US. Looking back on the growth optimism, which I shared, one is reminded that economists need more than a touch of humility in pronouncing on the future.